It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. However, I emphasize the word “currently,” because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology.

Now I know that some of you are probably like “Wow, sounds like this Kurzweil guy’s been smoking a stash of some sweet chiba. You think I could get some off him?”. But what I really appreciate about the essay is his scientific approach using empirical data from many areas of technology and methodical analysis to support his theories.

I can in no way do this paper justice by summarizing it. I wanted to highlight some of the key points here but my list was getting too long and many of the points just don’t make sense out of context.

Like I said, I first read this paper about a month ago and ever since, I’ve mentioned it to almost everyone I know. Even if you have absolutely no curiosity about the future of technology and how it will change your life, how can you not read an essay which begins by stating:

“You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says.”

Over the next few weeks, I hope to read more from Kurzweil and other researchers to gain a broader perspective of this topic.

Coal – Producing Hydrogen using coal is 12% efficient. If all cars in the US were hydrogen powered, we would consume twice as much coal than we currently are with gasoline power. We would also produce 2.7x carbon emissions.

Natural Gas – The popular process for creating Hydrogen from natural gas is called “steam reforming” and is 30% efficient. If all cars in the US ran on hydrogen created from natural gas, our gas consumption would actually increase 66% over current levels.

As depressing as it may be, the article offers clear evidence that hydrogen power cars are far from mainstream reality. Until scientists can come up with a very efficient way to produce hydrogen, this technology just does not make sense.